當期出版

  • 負面黨性如何影響臺灣民眾選擇 地方民意代表?應用網路調查結合聯合實驗設計探索投票行為
    過去文獻認為,地方民意代表採複數選區單記不可讓渡投票制(SNTV)的選制較重視選人不選黨,但由於地方政治人物的屬性多元又相互關聯,本研究以縣市議員選舉為例,採用網路調查結合聯合實驗設計,可區分出選民在投票抉擇時哪些個人屬性較重要;另一方面,代表正面黨性的政黨認同影響雖然仍有其解釋力,但「負面黨性」又是如何影響投票抉擇近來頗受討論,選民有無負面黨性與候選人個人屬性偏好的交互影響,更是本文關心的焦點。
    本研究發現,多數臺灣選民心中偏好的地方民意代表個人屬性是較年輕、有政治經驗、未涉貪腐、在地人、學歷不低,卻不見得討厭政二代。若加入負面黨性的觀點,對選民的投票行為可以得到更充足的解釋,意即負面黨性使得大多數選民對地方民意代表的政黨標籤仍是敏感的,而不只是單純進行真誠投票,有人甚至會因政黨標籤投給涉及貪腐的候選人;另無特定政黨傾向的選民中,討厭泛綠的比例高於討厭泛藍,此應是目前執政黨的警訊。本研究對於政黨在地方選舉的提名策略亦具啟發性,能夠了解不同黨性族群的期待,推出迎合民眾偏好的候選人,適可促進民眾更積極參與地方選舉投票。
    張順全、莊文忠
  • 台灣「政黨名單候選人」甄補之持續與變遷
    台灣在2005年第七次修憲以前,政黨名單立委(又稱「不分區立委」)的設計已存在,但選民只能針對區域立委投票。改制後,選民擁有兩張選票,可分別投給其偏好的區域立委及政黨。本文認為選制改革後的政黨有動機在政黨名單提名「優質候選人」以贏得選民支持。本文針對1992至2024年共十次立委選舉,分析選舉公報上政黨名單候選人的背景資訊,並特別聚焦在國內主要政黨的人才甄補。研究發現,整體而言選制改革後,各政黨提名更多高學歷候選人,降低現任立委的提名,增加更多元專業人士及社會團體的提名。然而,從比較「實質名單(安全名單)」與「象徵名單(不安全名單)的差異來看,無論改制前後,各政黨偏好將現任立委列入實質名單。此外,若僅檢視國內主要政黨,特別是國民黨及民進黨兩大政黨來看,選制改革後,他們不僅增加專業人士及社會團體代表的提名,各職業代表分配在實質或象徵名單之間也沒有顯著差異,這顯示主要政黨的確在改制後甄補更多元的社會代表。然而,資深立委及具地方、黨內派系背景者進入實質名單機率仍較高,這顯示政黨名單在改制後仍未完全擺脫平衡黨內政治勢力之角色。
    廖育嶒
  • Changes in the Political Trust of Taiwanese Students after Cross-Polity Contact
    Changes in the political trust among Taiwanese students after visiting mainland China symbolize the effectiveness of the CPC’s political propaganda. This issue is critically related to the stability of Taiwan’s democratic polity and hence warrants the close attention of supporters of democracy from around the world. A total of 516 Taiwanese youth who visited mainland China on exchange programs were studied.  Four hypotheses were proposed by combining the theories of social contact, political socialization, and rational choice. The results show that after the students visited mainland China, the number of those with greater political trust in their home country was 13.46% higher than those with lower trust. The average change significantly increased by 0.06. All four hypotheses were supported by empirical evidence. After the cross-polity contact, students’ perceived hostility of the Communist Party of China was reduced, or they were more satisfied with the level of Taiwan’s democracy, or their evaluation of Taiwan’s industrial prospects were better, or they less willing to go to mainland China for career development, leading to greater trust in Taiwanese officials. This study makes a unique contribution to the literature by combining true-acquaintance contact and political mobilization to propose the perceived hostility hypothesis for changes in political trust.
    Chia-chou Wang