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Home Issues Backissues Volume 31, No.1 Retrospective Voting or Issue Voting: A Comparative Study of 2005 Magistrate Elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung Counties

Retrospective Voting or Issue Voting: A Comparative Study of 2005 Magistrate Elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung Counties

Teh-Fu Huang and Jin-Lin Huang
2008 / 05
Volume 15, No.1

pp.19-49
10.6612/tjes.2008.15.01.19-49
Paper

Abstract

The subjects of retrospective voting and issue voting have recently become the major focuses in the study of voting behavior. It is quite appropriate to investigate the models of retrospective voting and issue voting for the 2005 elections in Taiwan. Except for the emphasis on the factors of candidates and political parties in the traditional analysis of voting behavior, this study tries to explore the influence of retrospective voting and issue voting on the results of the 2005 Magistrate Elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung Counties. By conducting empirical analysis, we have had some important findings as follow. First of all, both retrospective voting and issue voting are not the important factors in this given elections. Secondly, the factors of political parties and candidates are critical forces in influencing the outcome of the elections. Thirdly, the influence of the variable of political parties is powerful than the variable of candidates in the elections. Finally, the factors of ”Ma Ying-chiu phenomenon” and ”Chen Che-nan Scandal” are not as important as we expected intuitively.

Keywords

voting behavior

economic approach of voting behavior

retrospective voting

issue voting