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- Electoral Competition, Incumbency, News Coverage, and Prediction Market Price: A Preliminary Study of Campaign Contribut
- Chia-hung Tsai
- 2018 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate’s tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party’s general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.
- Populism and the 2020 Mayoral Recall and Byelection of Kaohsiung City
- Tsung-han Liao
- 2022 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
This study uses two sets of data to analyze the voting for the recall and the byelection. One is “A Voting Study of Kaohsiung City’s Third Mayoral Recall” hosted by Tsai Chia-hung and conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center, and the other is “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2020- 2024(I): Kaohsiung City Mayor By-Elections: Telephone Interview hosted by Chen Luhui” conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center. We found that during the recall period, populism was affected by the age and education of the voters. During the by-election period, the populist inclination was affected by voters’ party identity, Taiwanese/Chinese identity, education and occupation. In addition, the populist inclination of Kaohsiung voters did not affect their decision to vote for recall. Their satisfaction with Han Guo-yu was the main reason for voters to vote for the recall and in the by-election, voters with lower populist inclination voted for Chen Chi-mai, but it did not influence voters to vote for Li Mei-jhen. Although Han Guo-yu helped Li Mei-jhen in the campaign, it did not affect the voters’ choice.
Keywords
- Cognitive Madisonianism and Split-Ticket Voting in Taiwan: A Generalized Structural Equation Modeling Approach
- Kah-yew Lim
- 2018 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
Cognitive madisoniansim is crucial in political situations. It is not only an important value of democratic societies, but also a factor in explaining split-ticket voting. With the increase of minor parties and candidates, the media believe that Taiwan’s 2016 general elections have shown the most fierce split-ticket voting. It is worth mentioning that we shall not ignore the issue of endogeneity caused by partisanship when discussing the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and split-ticket voting. Based on the panel data of TEDS2016, this study aims to recategorize the cognitive madisoniansim of the respondents and resolve the issue of endogeneity by applying a generalized structural equation model (GSEM). By doing so, we aim to examine the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and splitticket voting.
The findings show that the public’s cognitive madisoniansim was indeed affected by party preference. DPP supporters have tended to support cognitive madisoniansim in the past. However, they stopped supporting it once the DDP took over the government. The KMT showed the opposite situation. They had been against cognitive madisoniansim in the past. When they began losing elections, they started to support it. Regarding voting decisions, cognitive madsoniansim has positive effects on people’s decisions about straight-ticket voting or split-ticket voting. Nevertheless, most voters who cast straight-ticket voting for the DPP are those who stopped supporting or constantly supported cognitive madisoniansim. These two groups of voters both prefer the DDP. This result indicates that the effect of voters’ cognitive madisoniansim on their voting behaviors still reflects their party preference. The above-mentioned issues present the endogeneity issue derived by explaining the split-ticket voting behaviors by cognitive madisoniansim and the inevitability of GSEM methods. We suggest that researchers not ignore the effect of party preference as they examine the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and split-ticket voting.
- Comparisons of Estimation Efficiencies among Various Dual-frame Telephone Survey Weighting Procedures
- Yung-tai Hung
- 2021 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
This study employs indicators of election prediction errors to evaluate the effectiveness and pros and cons of various estimation procedures for combining data sets collected from dual-frame telephone surveys.
There are basically three types of combining dual-frame survey data, namely, all landline survey data plus those of cell-phone only; all cell-phone survey data plus those of landline only, and combing both sets of data according to their coverage proportions in the population. This study shows that the landline phone survey samples differ systematically from the cell-phone survey samples in many demographical characteristics. Using a total predicting error indicator to compare the results of various estimation procedures in three election results, namely, the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 referendum on the same-sex marriage law, and the 2020 presidential election, this study finds the following: (1) The original data collected from the landline survey fares the best. (2) Adjusting data by applying weights derived from government household registration data enlarges the prediction errors for the landline phone survey but performs slightly better for the cell-phone survey. (3) Due to selection bias from cell-phone survey samples, the prediction errors tend to be further away from the true election results. The damage done does not redeem its good intention for correcting the coverage shortcomings caused by the traditional landline phone survey.
The study also suggests several issues to be explored in future studies: (1) Investigate further the characteristics of using both landline and cell-phone samples for landline and cell-phone surveys. (2) Investigate the mode effects on landline and cell-phone surveys. (3) Investigate the performance of dual-frame telephone surveys in areas other than electoral studies.
- Post-Stratified Estimation Procedures for the Dual Frame Telephone Survey in Taiwan: The Case of the 2016 Presidential Election
- Wen-jong Juang, Mei-rong Lin, and Yung-tai Hung
- 2022 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
This study found that there was a minor difference between the eligible population and the voter population in the 2016 presidential election in Taiwan. However, the polls from different sampling frames were not completely consistent with the polls from these two populations. The correction effect of the weighting adjustment by the different population parameter on voter turnout, vote gain, and encouraging voter participation is limited. Therefore, to resolve the gap between the poll results and the voting results, the definition of the population might not be critical. The selection of sample frames, the design of questionnaires, the improvement of interview skills, and the reduction of interview failures are more important factors.
- An Analysis of Taiwanese/Chinese Identity: 2000-2021
- Su-feng Cheng
- 2022 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- A Re-examination of the Factional Substitution Policy of the KMT in the 1970s: Factors that Contributed to the Rise of the Outside of KMT in 1977
- Ka-tik Tan
- 2023 / 05/01Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Turnout of Referendum Without Concurrent Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2021 Referenda in Taiwan
- Po-chun Wu and Yung-ming Hsu
- 2023 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Effects of Survey Questionnaire Design: A Random Experiment in Measuring Political Knowledge as an Example
- Mei-rong Lin and Wen-jong Juang
- 2018 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
A survey is designed to explore the participants’ opinions, attitudes and actions towards certain topics. The amount of information possessed by participants is not the only factor that influences their willingness to participate; question types and options design also influence participants’ responses. In reality, given cost constraints and questionnaire length, it is not feasible to provide a multiple survey design for a single concept, or to verify participants' response mode under different survey designs. This study used an experimental design to measure political knowledge from Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) as an example, based on (1) an “open-ended vs. close-ended” question design; (2) whether it provides “non-response” as an option, to design four different types of surveys. The study uses a posttest-only control group design with university students as participants. We randomly released the questionnaires to participants and had 1,110 valid questionnaires.
The study found that question type and non-response design affects the participant response mode; a close-ended questionnaire design does increase the correct response ratio from participants, but it also produces a higher proportion of incorrect answers than an open-ended questionnaire. An openended questionnaire design does not have options as reference, and so it could lower the willingness of participants to take part in the survey, and it therefore resulted in a higher non-response ratio. From the composite design of question type and non-response option, we were able to precisely estimate types of participants as in Mondak (1999), but the combinations of different types of participants vary significantly as results from the level of difficulties in a questionnaire designed to measure political knowledge.
- The Impact of Han Kuo-yu's Populist Rhetoric in the 2018 Kaohsiung Mayoral Election
- Nathan F. Batto
- 2021 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Maintaining or Expanding Support Bases? Local Councilors’ Distributive Strategies of Local Infrastructure Expenditures
- Sih-ting Li
- 2022 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Negative Partisanship and Voting Choice: The Case of Presidential Elections in Taiwan, 2004-2020
- Hung-i Lee and Yu-tzung Chang
- 2022 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- A Comparative Analysis of Weighting Approaches for Dual-Frame Telephone Surveys
- Pei-chun Hou
- 2023 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
This study uses data from a 2020 dual-frame telephone survey to compare several popular weighting approaches. The impact of these approaches on the variance and bias in both single-frame and dual-frame samples, as well as in overlap and screener designs, is discussed. Additionally, this study examines the differences between the estimates of the non-proportion dual-frame sample allocation to provide practical recommendations.
The results indicate the following: (1) if the sample allocation of the dualframe samples is in nearly equal proportions, minor differences occur in the weighting loss between the overlap and screener designs. Only the post-stratified estimating procedure reveals some differences in the estimates with other designs. (2) If the sample allocation of the dual-frame samples is in unequal proportions, such as one single-frame national sample and the others are only 1/3 or 1/2 of the former, then after calibration, the weighting loss is only slightly increased, and these approaches produce only tiny differences in the calibrated estimates between the combinations.
- The Causes of News Avoidance among Taiwanese People and Its Effects on Individual Attitudes toward Democracy
- Ching-Hsing Wang
- 2023 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Examining Factors Affecting the Election Outcomes of Indigenous Women Running for Local Councilors in Taiwan
- Chiung-chu Lin
- 2024 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
Since the 1990s, many countries have adopted various quota systems to promote higher levels of women’s political representation. International research confirm that such quota systems have had a positive impact on increasing women’s political participation. In Taiwan, studies on women’s political participation also shown that reserved seats for women have significantly boosted their involvement in politics. However, few existing studies have specifically focused on the political participation of indigenous women. The election results from 2002 to 2018 indicate a growing number of indigenous women running for and being elected to office. But what factors explain this increase in political participation? Is it the reserved seats for women system, political dynamics, or the background characteristics of the candidates that play the key role in encouraging indigenous women's involvement in politics? This paper analyzes data from local councilor elections between 2002 and 2018 and finds that most female candidates have prior experience in community involvement or political-related activities. Additionally, KMT nomination or recommendation, as well as incumbent status, significantly contribute to the election chances and vote share of indigenous female candidates. This paper analyzes the data of local councilor elections from 2002 to 2018, and finds that most of the female candidates have experience in community involvement or political-related experiences. KMT nomination or recommendation, as well as incumbent status, contribute to the election chances and vote share of indigenous female candidates, which aligns with existing research on women councilors at the national and municipal levels. The impact of the reserved seats for women system is reflected in its role in motivating participation. In line with previous findings on ethnic voting patterns, a candidate’s ethnicity is also significantly associated with their election chances and vote share, with Amis, Paiwan, and Atayal ethnic background positively influencing electoral performance. Lastly, female characteristics and breaking gender stereotypes through effective political performance help improve the election outcomes for indigenous female candidates.
- Effects of Discrete Emotional Appeals in Minor Party Political Advertisements: A case study of New Power Party
- Hsuan-yi Chou, Bo-quan Su, Jiun-chi Lin
- 2024 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
Recently, political scholars have examined the rise of minor parties through the lens of campaign strategies. However, researchers have yet to explore how minor parties garner voter support through political advertisements. Furthermore, scholars know less about how voters with different party preferences within similar political ideologies respond to minor party advertisements. Focusing on political advertisements of minor parties, this study examines the impact of prevalent emotional appeals (enthusiasm, pride, anger, hope, anxiety, and fear) in political ads on the party attitudes and voting intentions of voters with different party preferences. It integrates the affective intelligence theory and the emotional valence dimension (positive vs. negative) from the emotional dimension theory. With a one-factor-between-subjects experimental design, it manipulated the New Power Party’s (NPP) political ads to test the effectiveness of emotional appeals. The experimental results reveal that when voters’ party preferences are consistent with the advertised party (i.e., NPP supporters viewing NPP advertisements), the emotional appeals of enthusiasm and pride under the disposition system lead to more favorable party attitudes and voting intentions. Conversely, when voters’ party preferences are inconsistent with the advertised party (i.e., Democratic Progressive Party supporters viewing NPP advertisements), the emotional appeals of hope and anxiety under the surveillance system yield better effects. In contrast, the emotional appeals of hope and fear under the surveillance system are more effective for voters with no specific party preference. It fulfills the research gap in affective intelligence theory and broadens relevant theories of minor parties’ political marketing and emotional appeals. It also provides practical recommendations on how minor parties can design political advertisements.
- Unravelling Mnemonic Manipulations in Electioneering: Investigating Mind Engineering in the Han Camp during the 2018 Election
- Hsin-yi Yeh
- 2024 / 11Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
This study attempts to unravel mnemonic manipulation in electioneering. The results of the 2018 nine-in-one election in Taiwan can be explained by the “Han tide” and its spillover effects, and so this study aims to decipher the emergence of the Han tide using a memory-studies approach. While admitting that other social factors played a role in the formation of the Han tide, this study suggests that four elements were found in Han’s electioneering: (re)defining the present as negative and (re)directing attention to the future, switching the commemorative focus from politics to economics, encouraging people to forget the political past and embrace the economic future, and employing an awakening narrative to evoke change. Moreover, four additional aspects were observed in the Han tide: canceling the challenges of counter-narratives by redirecting people’s attention, solving the issue of lacking a shared past with Kaohsiung City, downplaying and/or editing “out” the negative aspects of “our side,” and degrading the mnemonic framing and nostalgic capital of the Democratic Progressive Party. Although scholars of memory studies have shed light on politics in memory, this study argues that memory in politics should also be emphasized by investigating more empirical cases.
- How Does Negative Partisanship Affect Tai- wanese People’s Choice of Local Representa- tives? Exploring Voting Behavior through the Application of Online Surveys and Conjoint Experimental Design
- Shun-chuan Chang, Wen-jong Juang
- 2024 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
Past literature suggests that the Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) electoral system used in multi-member districts places great emphasis on selecting candidates over parties. However, given the diverse and interrelated attributes of local politicians, this study uses county councilor elections as an example and employs online surveys combined with conjoint experimental design to effectively distinguish which personal attributes are more important to voters when choosing among candidates. On the other hand, while the positive partisanship represented by party identification still has explanatory power, the impact of “negative partisanship” on voting choices has recently received considerable attention. Therefore, when making voting choices, the interactive effect of whether voters have negative partisanship and what their personal preferences for candidates are is the focus of this study.
This study found that the preferred personal attributes of local representatives in the minds of most Taiwanese voters are younger age, political experience, no involvement in corruption, local residency, and higher education. However, the study also found that negative partisanship still makes most voters sensitive to the party label of local representatives, rather than just voting based on preferred personal attributes. Some voters may even vote for candidates deemed corrupt. Additionally, among voters with no specific party preference, the proportion of those who dislike the pan-green camp is higher than those who dislike the pan-blue camp, which should be a warning for the current ruling party. This study provides inspiration for the nomination strategies of political parties in local elections. By understanding the expectations of different party-affiliated groups, parties can put forward candidates who cater to the preferences of the public, which can promote more active participation of the public in local elections.
- Continuity and Change in Nomination for Party-list Candidates: A Case Study of Taiwan
- Yu-ceng Liao
- 2024 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
- Changes in the Political Trust of Taiwanese Students after Cross-Polity Contact
- Chia-chou Wang
- 2024 / 05Volume 29, No.2
Abstract
Changes in the political trust among Taiwanese students after visiting mainland China symbolize the effectiveness of the CPC’s political propaganda. This issue is critically related to the stability of Taiwan’s democratic polity and hence warrants the close attention of supporters of democracy from around the world. A total of 516 Taiwanese youth who visited mainland China on exchange programs were studied. Four hypotheses were proposed by combining the theories of social contact, political socialization, and rational choice. The results show that after the students visited mainland China, the number of those with greater political trust in their home country was 13.46% higher than those with lower trust. The average change significantly increased by 0.06. All four hypotheses were supported by empirical evidence. After the cross-polity contact, students’ perceived hostility of the Communist Party of China was reduced, or they were more satisfied with the level of Taiwan’s democracy, or their evaluation of Taiwan’s industrial prospects were better, or they less willing to go to mainland China for career development, leading to greater trust in Taiwanese officials. This study makes a unique contribution to the literature by combining true-acquaintance contact and political mobilization to propose the perceived hostility hypothesis for changes in political trust.