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Abstract

In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate’s tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party’s general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.

Abstract

Populism is deeply embedded in a democratic society, and a thin ideology composed of many different concepts affects people’s attitudes toward political elites and their vote choices. Based on voters’ populist inclination, this paper analyzes the voting in the recall of the mayor and the by-election of Kaohsiung City in 2020. In the two different voting periods, the voters’ populist inclination was affected by their demographic background and political attitudes.
This study uses two sets of data to analyze the voting for the recall and the byelection. One is “A Voting Study of Kaohsiung City’s Third Mayoral Recall” hosted by Tsai Chia-hung and conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center, and the other is “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2020- 2024(I): Kaohsiung City Mayor By-Elections: Telephone Interview hosted by Chen Luhui” conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center. We found that during the recall period, populism was affected by the age and education of the voters. During the by-election period, the populist inclination was affected by voters’ party identity, Taiwanese/Chinese identity, education and occupation. In addition, the populist inclination of Kaohsiung voters did not affect their decision to vote for recall. Their satisfaction with Han Guo-yu was the main reason for voters to vote for the recall and in the by-election, voters with lower populist inclination voted for Chen Chi-mai, but it did not influence voters to vote for Li Mei-jhen. Although Han Guo-yu helped Li Mei-jhen in the campaign, it did not affect the voters’ choice.

Abstract

Cognitive madisoniansim is crucial in political situations. It is not only an important value of democratic societies, but also a factor in explaining split-ticket voting. With the increase of minor parties and candidates, the media believe that Taiwan’s 2016 general elections have shown the most fierce split-ticket voting. It is worth mentioning that we shall not ignore the issue of endogeneity caused by partisanship when discussing the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and split-ticket voting. Based on the panel data of TEDS2016, this study aims to recategorize the cognitive madisoniansim of the respondents and resolve the issue of endogeneity by applying a generalized structural equation model (GSEM). By doing so, we aim to examine the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and splitticket voting.
The findings show that the public’s cognitive madisoniansim was indeed affected by party preference. DPP supporters have tended to support cognitive madisoniansim in the past. However, they stopped supporting it once the DDP took over the government. The KMT showed the opposite situation. They had been against cognitive madisoniansim in the past. When they began losing elections, they started to support it. Regarding voting decisions, cognitive madsoniansim has positive effects on people’s decisions about straight-ticket voting or split-ticket voting. Nevertheless, most voters who cast straight-ticket voting for the DPP are those who stopped supporting or constantly supported cognitive madisoniansim. These two groups of voters both prefer the DDP. This result indicates that the effect of voters’ cognitive madisoniansim on their voting behaviors still reflects their party preference. The above-mentioned issues present the endogeneity issue derived by explaining the split-ticket voting behaviors by cognitive madisoniansim and the inevitability of GSEM methods. We suggest that researchers not ignore the effect of party preference as they examine the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and split-ticket voting.

Abstract

This study looks into issues evolving from dual-frame telephone surveys carried out in Taiwan. Some issues have been resolved, while others are still being explored. Directions of future studies are also suggested.
This study employs indicators of election prediction errors to evaluate the effectiveness and pros and cons of various estimation procedures for combining data sets collected from dual-frame telephone surveys.
There are basically three types of combining dual-frame survey data, namely, all landline survey data plus those of cell-phone only; all cell-phone survey data plus those of landline only, and combing both sets of data according to their coverage proportions in the population. This study shows that the landline phone survey samples differ systematically from the cell-phone survey samples in many demographical characteristics. Using a total predicting error indicator to compare the results of various estimation procedures in three election results, namely, the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 referendum on the same-sex marriage law, and the 2020 presidential election, this study finds the following: (1) The original data collected from the landline survey fares the best. (2) Adjusting data by applying weights derived from government household registration data enlarges the prediction errors for the landline phone survey but performs slightly better for the cell-phone survey. (3) Due to selection bias from cell-phone survey samples, the prediction errors tend to be further away from the true election results. The damage done does not redeem its good intention for correcting the coverage shortcomings caused by the traditional landline phone survey.
The study also suggests several issues to be explored in future studies: (1) Investigate further the characteristics of using both landline and cell-phone samples for landline and cell-phone surveys. (2) Investigate the mode effects on landline and cell-phone surveys. (3) Investigate the performance of dual-frame telephone surveys in areas other than electoral studies.

Abstract

The controversy over the authenticity of election polls or the representativeness of samples is the definition of “population” in election polls. Since voter turnout is not absolute, there is a difference between “eligible population” and “voter population”. Therefore, the demographic consistency between eligible population and voter population with different sample frames in election polls is a topic that has become crucial in survey methodology. The purpose of this study is threefold: (1) exploring the error of population coverage through reviewing the evolution of different sampling frames used in election polls in Taiwan; (2) clarifying the implication of eligible population and voter population in election studies and analyzing the 2016 presidential election campaign in Taiwan; (3) analyzing the difference of the polls conducted by TEDS for the 2016 presidential election by using different sample frames, and examining the effect of the weighting adjustment by population parameters, and exploring its theoretical and practical implications.
This study found that there was a minor difference between the eligible population and the voter population in the 2016 presidential election in Taiwan. However, the polls from different sampling frames were not completely consistent with the polls from these two populations. The correction effect of the weighting adjustment by the different population parameter on voter turnout, vote gain, and encouraging voter participation is limited. Therefore, to resolve the gap between the poll results and the voting results, the definition of the population might not be critical. The selection of sample frames, the design of questionnaires, the improvement of interview skills, and the reduction of interview failures are more important factors.

Abstract

This paper employs qualitative data collected through focus group and in-depth interviews during the period of 2000-2021. The proposed research aims to explore how Taiwanese people define and interpret “Taiwanese”, “Chinese” and “both Taiwanese and Chinese (dual identities)”, and also to clarify people’s identity target and boundary. The result shows that Taiwanese people’s identity contents are continuous and concentrated in the Taiwan- centered “we group” consciousness. The primordialist ties with China persists, yet most of them are regarded as objective facts and cannot be generated or converted into the “we group” consciousness. The major change is that the Chinese consciousness has almost disappeared from popular discourse. Our data also shows that many Taiwanese people have treated Taiwan (Republic of China) as the “we group”, and China (People’s Republic of China) as the “they group”. This finding indicates that Taiwan identity has reached the stage of national identity in terms of boundary setting. The gradual clarity and elevationed consciousness of national identity impliesy that Taiwan has the tendency of reaching a collective identity.

Abstract

The Taiwan Provincial Council is the subject of this study. Based on the KMT's nomination strategy and election results in the two provincial councilor elections in 1972 and 1977, it revisits and revises the KMT's factional substitution policy of the 1970s. During the 1972 local elections, the KMT aggressively promoted factional replacement in the election of magistrates, mayors, and Taiwan Provincial Councilors. The KMT eliminated political figures with local factional backgrounds on a large scale in the name of promoting young talents. With respect to the Taiwan Provincial Councilors, the replacement was intended to eliminate Taiwan Provincial Councilors elected prior to 1968 in order to suppress the inter-county local faction that existed in the Taiwan Provincial Council at the time. Most Taiwan Provincial Councilors who had served for more than two terms were not re-elected, thereby generating a significant generational shift in the makeup of Taiwan Provincial Council. The KMT’s control over the Taiwan Provincial Council was thus strengthened. Despite a significant reduction in mobilization power due to the KMT's suppression of local factions, the party's political base was unaffected by the absence of a strong national opposition at the time. During the 1977 local elections, the KMT continued to suppress local factions while giving support to KMT members who had no factional background. The local factions were no longer as effective as they had been during the local elections in 1972. Except for a few counties and cities, no local factions abandoned the KMT, and their capacity for mobilization improved. However, factions outside the party successfully mobilized over 7% of new voters who had not voted previously. This resulted in unprecedented setbacks for the KMT, including the defeat of several Taiwan provincial councilors from local factions. Taiwan has since formed an opposition capable of mobilizing the entire country.

Abstract

This study examines the shifts in voter turnout during Taiwan’s two referenda in 2018 and 2021, resulting from the transition from concurrent elections to separate ones. The research reveals a relationship between referendum turnout and the percentage of young voters when they are no longer held concurrently with general elections. In 2018, regions with a higher proportion of young voters experienced higher participation in referenda, whereas in 2021, areas with a lower percentage of young voters displayed increased turnout. Furthermore, even after controlling for the level of higher education among the population and the political party in power at the town levels, an inverse relationship between the proportion of young voters and turnout remained consistent. When referenda were decoupled from general elections, a higher percentage of young voters was associated with lower overall turnout, and the relationship between higher education and turnout was found to be insignificant. When comparing changes in turnout between cities not governed by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a significant increase in turnout was observed in DPP-led areas in 2021. This suggests that when referenda were decoupled from general elections, the ruling party became more proactive in mobilizing voters. Furthermore, an analysis of approval votes indicates that higher turnout encourages more approval votes. However, in the context of reduced turnout during nonconcurrent elections, the proportion of approval votes also decreased accordingly.

Abstract

A survey is designed to explore the participants’ opinions, attitudes and actions towards certain topics. The amount of information possessed by participants is not the only factor that influences their willingness to participate; question types and options design also influence participants’ responses. In reality, given cost constraints and questionnaire length, it is not feasible to provide a multiple survey design for a single concept, or to verify participants' response mode under different survey designs. This study used an experimental design to measure political knowledge from Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) as an example, based on (1) an “open-ended vs. close-ended” question design; (2) whether it provides “non-response” as an option, to design four different types of surveys. The study uses a posttest-only control group design with university students as participants. We randomly released the questionnaires to participants and had 1,110 valid questionnaires.
The study found that question type and non-response design affects the participant response mode; a close-ended questionnaire design does increase the correct response ratio from participants, but it also produces a higher proportion of incorrect answers than an open-ended questionnaire. An openended questionnaire design does not have options as reference, and so it could lower the willingness of participants to take part in the survey, and it therefore resulted in a higher non-response ratio. From the composite design of question type and non-response option, we were able to precisely estimate types of participants as in Mondak (1999), but the combinations of different types of participants vary significantly as results from the level of difficulties in a questionnaire designed to measure political knowledge.

Abstract

How did Han Kuo-yu shoot from political obscurity to become the mayor of Kaohsiung and then the KMT presidential candidate? This paper argues that Han’s rise was grounded in his populist appeal. Han told voters that things should have been better for ordinary people except that establishment politicians had consistently failed to represent their interests. This paper examines Han’s populist rhetoric with an in-depth look at Han’s statements in the 2017 KMT party chair election and 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral campaign. It then looks at public opinion data from the 2018 Kaohsiung mayoral election to see whether voters absorbed that rhetoric. There are, in fact, clear echoes of Han’s populist rhetoric in the survey data. Acceptance of Han’s rhetoric was associated with a vote for Han, even among voters who were not traditional KMT constituents. That is, Han’s populist rhetoric played a central role in expanding his appeal and enabling him to secure an unlikely victory in Kaohsiung.

Abstract

One of the most important debates in the distributive politics literature is who receives allocation. Previous studies on Taiwan’s distributive politics have examined predominantly the role played by the president, legislators and the local governments. The distributive strategies of local councilors, however, have been overlooked. Few explain the variations in the amount of resources within councilors’ electoral districts. Using data on local infrastructure expenditures by the 12 Taipei City councilors, this study investigates how rational politicians allocate infrastructure resources in order to maximize the probabilities of reelection, and whether local councilors use resources to reward their core supporters or to expand their support bases. We identify two dimensions—whether to allocate and the amount of money spent by councilors — to the mechanisms of resource allocation. Based on multilevel Tobit regression analysis, we first examine whether councilors tend to favor important sub-constituencies or not. The results indicate that councilors do reward their core supporters with public resources to maintain their electoral bases. However, there is no significant difference in the amount of resources no matter how important the area is. Overall, our findings support the core hypothesis and point out that the allocation mechanism of city councilors should be revised.

Abstract

The bitter rivalries that used to occur only among political elites have now reached the everyday lives of the mass public. In particular, the results of presidential elections have been driven as much by affective conflict between partisans as by policy debates. The present study explores affective polarization in Taiwan through negative partisanship. Data from presidential elections between 2004 and 2020 provide evidence for the effect of negative partisanship on election results. The study found that starting in 2012, there has been a rapid increase in negative views among partisans in both main parties toward the opposing party. In the 2020 presidential election, more than 40% of both Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters showed negative partisanship towards the opposing party. Furthermore, supporters of both parties had the lowest ever favorability scores for the opposing party. Even when traditional party identification and support for independence or reunification are controlled, negative partisanship still has significant explanatory power. The decision to vote for a candidate from a particular party in presidential elections depends not only on one’s long-term identification with that party but also on whether one harbors a strong negative opinion towards the opposing party.

Abstract

With the rapid advancement of IT and the changing times, Taiwan has been facing increasing coverage error in single-frame telephone surveys (whether by landline or cell phone) in recent years. Dual-frame telephone surveys can effectively reduce this deficiency. However, there is still no consensus on how to weight dualframe telephone samples in Taiwan.
This study uses data from a 2020 dual-frame telephone survey to compare several popular weighting approaches. The impact of these approaches on the variance and bias in both single-frame and dual-frame samples, as well as in overlap and screener designs, is discussed. Additionally, this study examines the differences between the estimates of the non-proportion dual-frame sample allocation to provide practical recommendations.
The results indicate the following: (1) if the sample allocation of the dualframe samples is in nearly equal proportions, minor differences occur in the weighting loss between the overlap and screener designs. Only the post-stratified estimating procedure reveals some differences in the estimates with other designs. (2) If the sample allocation of the dual-frame samples is in unequal proportions, such as one single-frame national sample and the others are only 1/3 or 1/2 of the former, then after calibration, the weighting loss is only slightly increased, and these approaches produce only tiny differences in the calibrated estimates between the combinations.

Abstract

News avoidance has a growing impact on the news industry and the functioning of democracy. Not only will the news industry lose its consumers and the news media shrink, but more importantly, the democratic society will lose its “informed citizens,” which will reduce the public’s understanding of and participation in public affairs and will be harmful to the working of democracy. Given the negative impact of news avoidance on a democratic society, many studies have attempted to examine the factors that affect the public’s news avoidance. However, there are not many studies on this topic in Taiwan. In order to fill the gap in the literature, this study employs the data from TEDS2021 to investigate the factors influencing Taiwanese people’s news avoidance. In addition, this study further examines the political effects of news avoidance, that is, whether news-avoidant people will have lower levels of democratic evaluation and support for democracy. The results show that the emotional factors of party sentiment and trust in the media and the cognitive factors of political interest and political efficacy both have significant effects on individuals’ news avoidance. That is, people with more positive party sentiment and higher levels of trust in the media, political interest, and political efficacy are less likely to avoid the news. On the other hand, in terms of the relationship between news avoidance and democratic attitudes, this study finds that news avoidance has a significant negative effect on democratic evaluation and support for democracy. That is, people with higher levels of news avoidance tend to have lower levels of evaluation about Taiwan’s democracy and are less likely to view democracy as the best political system. This implies that news avoidance poses a threat to the proper functioning of democracy.

Abstract

Past literature suggests that the Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) electoral system used in multi-member districts places great emphasis on selecting candidates over parties. However, given the diverse and interrelated attributes of local politicians, this study uses county councilor elections as an example and employs online surveys combined with conjoint experimental design to effectively distinguish which personal attributes are more important to voters when choosing among candidates. On the other hand, while the positive partisanship represented by party identification still has explanatory power, the impact of “negative partisanship” on voting choices has recently received considerable attention. Therefore, when making voting choices, the interactive effect of whether voters have negative partisanship and what their personal preferences for candidates are is the focus of this study.
This study found that the preferred personal attributes of local representatives in the minds of most Taiwanese voters are younger age, political experience, no involvement in corruption, local residency, and higher education. However, the study also found that negative partisanship still makes most voters sensitive to the party label of local representatives, rather than just voting based on preferred personal attributes. Some voters may even vote for candidates deemed corrupt. Additionally, among voters with no specific party preference, the proportion of those who dislike the pan-green camp is higher than those who dislike the pan-blue camp, which should be a warning for the current ruling party. This study provides inspiration for the nomination strategies of political parties in local elections. By understanding the expectations of different party-affiliated groups, parties can put forward candidates who cater to the preferences of the public, which can promote more active participation of the public in local elections.

Abstract

Before Taiwan’s Seventh Constitutional Amendment in 2005, there existed a system of party-list legislators (so-called “at-large legislators”), but voters could only vote for district legislators. After electoral reform, voters can now cast a separate two votes for their preferred district legislator and a political party. This study contends that the electoral reform incentivized parties to nominate “quality candidates” for the party list to garner voter recognition. This study analyzes the characteristics of party-list candidates from 1992 to 2024 who took part in ten congressional elections, and specifically focuses on the political recruitment of major parties in Taiwan. This research finds that parties recruited more highly educated candidates, reduced nominations of incumbent legislators, and increased nominations of a broader spectrum of candidates from various professions and social groups after the electoral reform. However, when examining the difference between a “realistic list” (“safe list”) and a “symbolic list” (“unsafe list”), parties have tended to prefer to place incumbent legislators on the realistic list, no matter before or after the electoral reform. Furthermore, when focusing only on the major parties, particularly the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party, it has been observed that after the electoral reform, they not only increased the nomination of professionals and social group representatives but also showed no significant difference in the placement of various occupations on either the realistic or symbolic lists. This indicates that the major parties did indeed nominate a more diverse societal representation in the post-reform period. However, veteran legislators and candidates with backgrounds in local or party factions still have had a higher chance of being included in the realistic list. This suggests that even after the electoral reform, the party list system has not been able to fully escape its role in balancing internal political forces within the parties.

Abstract

Changes in the political trust among Taiwanese students after visiting mainland China symbolize the effectiveness of the CPC’s political propaganda. This issue is critically related to the stability of Taiwan’s democratic polity and hence warrants the close attention of supporters of democracy from around the world. A total of 516 Taiwanese youth who visited mainland China on exchange programs were studied.  Four hypotheses were proposed by combining the theories of social contact, political socialization, and rational choice. The results show that after the students visited mainland China, the number of those with greater political trust in their home country was 13.46% higher than those with lower trust. The average change significantly increased by 0.06. All four hypotheses were supported by empirical evidence. After the cross-polity contact, students’ perceived hostility of the Communist Party of China was reduced, or they were more satisfied with the level of Taiwan’s democracy, or their evaluation of Taiwan’s industrial prospects were better, or they less willing to go to mainland China for career development, leading to greater trust in Taiwanese officials. This study makes a unique contribution to the literature by combining true-acquaintance contact and political mobilization to propose the perceived hostility hypothesis for changes in political trust.

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